The trader's equation: win rate, risk, and reward
The expected-value equation behind every trade and why nearly every strategy decision is downstream of it.
Explore practical explanations, guides and reference material for building, testing and evaluating crypto trading strategies under real market conditions.
Essential concepts for building and testing rule-based trading strategies.
Core principles behind realistic testing, validation, risk and robust performance.
Practical, step-by-step guidance for building, testing and improving strategies.
Clear explanations of the metrics, methods and terminology used in strategy analysis.
Build a stronger understanding of how strategies are designed, tested and evaluated.
The expected-value equation behind every trade and why nearly every strategy decision is downstream of it.
Calibrating what a real edge looks like, and why expectations — not signals — end most accounts.
The four parts of a complete strategy — entry, exit, regime and sizing — and the traps that catch most retail builds.
Why the curve in a standard backtester is fiction: fees, funding, slippage, partial fills and latency, and how to model them honestly.
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20 articles available
Essential concepts for building and testing rule-based trading strategies.
How the order-book auction works: bids, asks, the spread as a real cost, and the order types every systematic trader needs to know.
What a perpetual future actually is and how funding, margin and liquidation work in practice.
How holding time decides costs, required win rate, and whether a style is viable for a retail systematic trader.
The expected-value equation behind every trade and why nearly every strategy decision is downstream of it.
Calibrating what a real edge looks like, and why expectations — not signals — end most accounts.
Automation removes some bad habits and creates new ones. The discipline needed to keep a system running.
Core principles behind realistic testing, validation, risk and robust performance.
The four parts of a complete strategy — entry, exit, regime and sizing — and the traps that catch most retail builds.
Risk is not volatility. Drawdown, ruin, correlated risk, leverage and tail risk — the things that actually end accounts.
Why the curve in a standard backtester is fiction: fees, funding, slippage, partial fills and latency, and how to model them honestly.
The most common reason backtests succeed and live trading fails — how to detect overfitting and defend against it.
Splitting train and test, walk-forward, and why crypto needs longer windows than equities to mean anything.
What optimisation can and cannot do, and how to avoid the data-mining trap that turns a fine strategy into a fragile one.
Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, profit factor, win rate, expectancy, max drawdown — what each measures and what each conceals.
Trending, choppy, high-vol, low-vol — why no single strategy works in all of them, and how to think about regime dependency.
Why edges erode — crowding, regime change, structural shifts — and how to spot decay before it eats an account.
Why optimising one metric overfits, and how Pareto frontiers help find candidates that survive multiple objectives.
Per-trade expectancy, fill quality and why more trades is not always better — especially in crypto.
Why running a single strategy is fragile, and how correlation, allocation and rebalancing build a more durable result.
A line-by-line worked example of how fees, funding, spread and partial fills erode a paper edge.
Why a single-pair backtest is just one sample, and how pair-shopping manufactures fake edges.
Practical, step-by-step guidance for building, testing and improving strategies.
Clear explanations of the metrics, methods and terminology used in strategy analysis.
Edgecraft is being built to help traders create, test and investigate strategies using realistic market assumptions and evidence-led analysis.
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